The most recent test is thought to have been carried out after the UK’s stock of debt breached the 100 per cent of GDP last month.Treasury civil servants examined the debt, and then set out a number of different ‘futures’ for the UK economy, and then used them to wargame a range of theoretical changes to interest rates.Even before the full extent of the pandemic was known, analysis of the International Monetary Fund forecasts in April showed the UK’s debt as a proportion of GDP would close in on the 100 per cent mark, soaring from 86.2 per cent in 2017 when the Government had been working to cut the deficit.Steve Baker MP, a former Tory minister and a member of the House of Commons Treasury select committee, told the Telegraph on Thursday that he was “chronically alarmed that we are borrowing so much money and yet the Bank is still doing more QE”.Mr Baker said he was worried that “people were taking leave of their senses” about the reliance on QE by policy makers.”If economists seriously back this, we need some new economists,” he said.That came after Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee that sets interest rates, indicated more QE or interest rate cuts could be on the way.He said on Thursday: “I consider it quite likely that additional monetary easing will be appropriate in order to achieve a sustained return of inflation to the 2 per cent target.”Earlier this week Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England Governor, told MPs he was prepared to “go big and go fast” if more QE is needed.He said: “We used policy very aggressively. We also did a further round of quantitative easing of 100billion, which will continue in terms of its execution through to about the end of the year.”But Julian Jessop, economics fellow at the Institute of Economic Affairs, warned that while there was a risk of a rise in interest rates, it was “not an immediate one” because the Government is unusual in borrowing over the long term, locking in the low interest rates of recent years.He said: “Even if interest rates rose sharply tomorrow, the average maturity of UK government debt is about 15 years, so it will be many years before any increase in debt servicing costs becomes significant.”On Friday night a Treasury spokesman said: “There’s no question the pandemic has put considerable strain on the public finances we are now in an acute recession and our national debt is bigger than our economy. As the Chancellor has set out, over the medium term, we https://www.bookjerseys.com must get our finances back on a sustainable footing.
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